News - Text date advert ‘irresponsible’
Friday, November 30th, 2007| Read source on A County Down firm has been over an for its text dating service which could encourage teenagers to make dates with strangers.
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| Read source on A County Down firm has been over an for its text dating service which could encourage teenagers to make dates with strangers.
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From behind the normally silent walls of the Imperial Palace, came a noise that the Japanese had never heard before.
It was a cry from the Crown princess, and she was not happy. OK not literally. But the message emerged - and it hasn’t been contradicted - that she was frustrated, depressed even. Here was a modern woman trapped by unrealistic expectations dating from a bygone era.
More striking still is that in Japan, she appears not to be alone. Women are growing increasingly restive, no longer prepared to tolerate the submissive role that tradition dictates. They are rejecting duty and motherhood in their millions; the birth-rate is plummeting and the masters, the men, don’t know what to do.
Jonathan Head reported.
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Watch the report
JONATHAN HEAD:
Junko Tameda is taking her first steps in flamenco. Like most of the other students here, she is a professional in her 30s, and she’s single. There is a boom in Latin dance as women seek an escape from the stifling formality of everyday life. Japan is going through a social revolution, driven by women like Junko, who are turning their backs on marriage and stamping out their own lives, free of the burden of motherhood. At the age of 32, Junko still lives with her parents. So many unmarried men and women are doing this in Japan, they have coined the term “parasite single” to describe them. Junko doesn’t see herself as a parasite, though - just a young woman choosing to spend her time and money on the finer things in life. Over lunch, the family discuss her most recent holiday in New York. She loves travelling.
JUNKO TAMEDA:
[TRANSLATION]
I have worked hard to build up my freelance business as a graphic designer. I see myself as a success, so why should I be dissatisfied? I never had a strong desire to be married in my 20s, and I feel exactly the same way now.
HEAD:
Junko’s parents once dreamed of a wedding and a handsome husband. Now they seem resigned to having their eldest child living with them indefinitely.
SHIGEKO TAMEDA:
[TRANSLATION]
I was very young when I got married, because that’s what women were expected to do back then. My parents were conservative and they wanted to see me married by a certain age. That was my upbringing, but Junko has chosen to focus on her career and I can see it gives her great fulfilment.
KIYOSHI TAMEDA:
[TRANSLATION]
Marriage is a natural thing, in my view. If she meets someone suitable, she may still get married. If she finds a boyfriend, and perhaps six months or a year later it works out, well of course I will be happy.
HEAD:
There has been no shortage of interest from men, but Junko says none was prepared to allow her the freedoms she now enjoys. It’s been three years since her last relationship.
JUNKO TAMEDA:
[TRANSLATION]
Dating a man was fun, but when I was really keen on this one guy, and we thought about marriage, he started trying to restrict me from doing all the things I love doing. Eventually, I turned him down, and I am sure I made the right decision.
HEAD:
What’s wrong with Japanese men? Why is it so hard to find a good partner?
JUNKO TAMEDA:
[TRANSLATION]
Women these days are doing far more men’s work, that men don’t want to do anything that’s considered a woman’s role. That’s why we find it so hard to relate to each other. I can’t accept that man expects a woman to make housework a priority over her career.
HEAD:
It’s Sunday afternoon and Hiroe Shibata is snatching a few precious hours of relaxation in the fashionable neighbourhood where she lives, Tokyo’s equivalent of Notting Hill. Hiroe’s life is a hectic one. She is a marketing manager for a multinational drugs company and she is doing a post-graduate MBA. She too is in her 30s and single. In Japan, unmarried, childless women like her have been called “loser dogs”. She lives on her own in a tiny two-room apartment with no space even for a sofa. Her way of life is now the subject of intensive research by Japanese academics and advertisers trying to understand the lucrative single women’s market. She sees herself as a winner, not a loser.
HIROE SHIBATA:
I don’t think we are losers. We win the career. I have a career and I study for myself and that’s going to help my future, so I don’t think I am going to be a loser.
HEAD:
Does it make you angry when you hear that?
SHIBATA:
Not angry, but people think different ways. It’s a different kind of thinking. They think having a baby or getting married is a lifetime goal, but it’s not my goal. It may be a new kind of thinking but I don’t want to be tied up in the kind of traditionals. I want to be what I want to be. If it’s not necessary, I don’t want to get married.
HEAD:
The old spirit of self-sacrifice, which kept their mothers at home, has gone, replaced by a hunger for self-satisfaction. The free-spending habits of single women now support a huge market for luxury goods. Brands like Prada and Louis Vuitton run more shops here than in any other country. There are also more dogs today in Japan than children. This one is called Bebe. There is no longer any shame in living without a husband or children. Japan’s birth rate has now fallen to one of the lowest in the world. Its population is ageing and shrinking.
KEIKO AOKI:
[TRANSLATION]
When I talk to this dog, I feel like I am the mother of Bebe. When I go out, I always ask, “Do you want to come with mum?” This is my child. I think the number of women who want to have a child, but not a husband, has increased. A dog is a substitute for a child.
HEAD:
The estrangement of men and women is the subject of endless humour on the morning TV chat shows. Here a frustrated wife despairs of her worthless husband. For half a century, Japan built the world’s most successful industrial society on the back of a relentless work ethic which rigidly separated the roles of men and women. Women were tied to looking after the home and children. But the Japanese salaryman was expected to devote every waking hour to his company, even if that meant being a stranger to his own family. It’s a formula which is now being rejected by younger women in their millions, leaving the more traditionally minded men bewildered and confused. In desperation, these young men have formed a group calling themselves The Cherry Boys. A throwback to a bygone age of chivalry, they have taken a vow of chastity until they find the woman of their dreams. They are seeking solace in the romantic plot of the Puccini opera Manon Lescaut.
SHINKICHI WATANABE:
[TRANSLATION]
Women are much more forward these days. There was a time when they used to walk one step behind men. That still happened when my parents were young, but now they are racing ahead and we can’t keep up with them.
HEAD:
Why is it so difficult for guys like you to meet suitable women today in Japan?
KOICHIRO HIROTA:
[TRANSLATION]
It’s difficult. I often wonder about that myself. Perhaps I am a bit distanced from women.
TOMOYA KUMAGAI:
[TRANSLATION]
We can survive even if we don’t have girlfriends. There are a lot of alternatives available now, like the internet. In the old days, people made a real effort for love. But love just isn’t special any more.
HEAD:
There is a very different ideal of a woman which still has a pervasive hold on the mind of Japanese men. Ichimiyo is a maiko, a trainee geisha, one of a few hundred who still work in the city of Kyoto. Today she is joined by Sumie, who has come to watch her prepare for an evening serving and entertaining men. The two 16-year-olds swap make-up tips. As trainees, they live away from their families and receive only their board and lodging. A professional dresser arrives to help complete Ichimiyo’s from giggling teenager to an ornamented male fantasy. In five years, she will be able to charge powerful clients thousands of pounds for just a few hours in the world of old-style deference the geishas offer. Their own view of their profession, though, is surprisingly hard-headed.
ICHIMIYO, MAIKO:
[TRANSLATION]
When I told my friends out of the blue that I was going to become a maiko, they said, “What are you talking about? Are you crazy?”
SUMIE, TRAINEE GEISHA:
[TRANSLATION]
At first, my friend, my parents and my teachers were against it, but now they are all behind me.
ICHIMIYO:
[TRANSLATION]
Our job is not just to say “yes, yes, yes”. That’s boring. Our job is to make the customers feel comfortable. I think the image of us as submissive is a wrong one.
HEAD:
Marriage seems to be going out of fashion here in Japan. Is that true of other girls your age?
ICHIMIYO:
[TRANSLATION]
I don’t know why. Do you know?
SUMIE:
[TRANSLATION]
People just want to do their own thing these days.
ICHIMIYO:
[TRANSLATION]
I think maybe women are stronger now.
HEAD:
Geishas for many men still embody perfect feminine qualities of grace and compliance. No wonder so many male politicians then can’t work out why modern women are rejecting marriage. The government has several action plans promoting childcare, paternity leave and shorter working hours, but they are not taken seriously by a public which has heard a former prime minister tell women to stay at home and breed.
HIROKO MIZUSHIMA MP
DEMOCRATIC PARTY:
They still think that if mothers stay home, they can make more babies. I think actually they are not so interested in this issue. Well, suddenly they are shocked by the birth rate, and they think Japanese people will diminish or disappear, and suddenly they get panicked, but usually they are not interested in those things.
HEAD:
That view is shared by millions of Japanese. On this issue, the government has a serious credibility problem.
TAKUMI NEMOTO MP
COUNCIL FOR BIRTHRATE DECLINE:
[TRANSLATION]
We know the declining birth rate is very serious. I have been working on it for ten years, so it’s a pity if people what the government is trying to do. I think our policies have got better over the years, but it’s important that we present them more clearly to the public.
HEAD:
The toughest challenge will be changing Japan’s working culture. These men have given years of loyal service to their companies. Now they are trying to make the difficult adjustment from office to home. Recently retired salarymen are called “fallen wet leaves” by their wives because they are so useless at home. Divorce rates are rising faster in this age group than any other.
TOSHIMITSU HONDA:
[TRANSLATION]
You see, if you only say, “Dinner, bath and bed” after you come home from work, your wife will run away from you.
HEAD:
Is your wife very pleased that you are learning to cook?
NOBORU MOCHIZUKI:
Yes, and she respects me because she thinks independence is important for the future life.
HEAD:
The yawning gulf that exists between modern Japanese women and old-fashioned male values is being mirrored by an extraordinary drama being played out here at the Imperial Palace. Behind these fortress-like walls, an independent-minded Crown Princess is battling against the Royal household’s very traditional expectations of her as a woman. She was married into the Royal Family to produce an heir, and she has. The trouble is only men can occupy this antiquated throne and Princess Masako has been under intense pressure from the Palace to have a son. The Oxford and diplomat is said to be isolated and suffering from depression. The government has now been forced to think the unthinkable - the possibility of allowing a woman to succeed the throne. Japan’s women are better educated than they have ever been. They want more from a society that’s one of the wealthiest in the world. They want fun, they want freedom, and they want to avoid the kinds of marriages their mothers had. No room for marriage right now?
SHIBATA:
No.
HEAD:
Or children?
SHIBATA:
No.
HEAD:
Traditions are being challenged here like never before. Women are leading the way, and waiting for the men to catch up.
WATANABE:
[TRANSLATION]
I live on my own, so I have learned how to cook. I like cleaning my home. It may sound a bit arrogant, but I think I would make a good husband!
HEAD:
Unless there’s a meeting of minds between Japanese women and men over how they live and bring up a family together, the population will age, and it will fall. Japan’s hard-won economic achievements could also be lost.
This transcript was produced from the teletext subtitles that are generated live for Newsnight. It has been checked against the programme as broadcast, however Newsnight can accept no responsibility for any factual inaccuracies. We will be happy to correct serious errors.
Source article
The British are creatures of habit, if the way they typically spend their time each week is anything to go by.
The nation spends hours watching TV, shopping, gambling, dating and surfing the net, according to the Great British Time Survey, by Community Service Volunteers (CSV) and conducted by ICM.
Younger people’s free time revolves around socialising and the computer. Dates take up at least two hours a week for 42% of 18-24 year olds, while more than half surf the net for at least an hour a day, and a quarter play computer games for at least one hour a week.
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WHAT WE DO
87% of women shop for more than one hour a week
49% of men spend at least two hours a week doing DIY
69% of men spend at least one hour a day reading a paper
55% of people spend two hours a week gardening
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For the over-65s, tea breaks take up more than an hour a week for 79% of them, while 11% gamble for more than an hour a week.
But what few find time for is , according to the CSV. People often think they have nothing to offer, when actually they spend a lot of time doing activities that could help others. Its annual Make A Difference Day on 29 October aims to get people involved.
We asked celebrity life coach Gladeana McMahon to give her top tips for helping others, without changing what you do.
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Tea drinkers could organise community tea parties. If you settle down every afternoon for a cup of tea and a scone, why not make it a social event and invite round the neighbours. If you’re making one cup then making another three or four isn’t any more hassle.
I’m always happy when a task that I do has more than one purpose. Something as simple as making tea can have lots of benefits apart from just quenching your thirst.
It is all about looking at what you do and working out how it can help. A tea party will strengthen community relations, as well as make you some new friends.
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could help a disabled person with their retail needs. In my experience nothing feels better than knowing you have made a - it’s a feeling money can’t buy.
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Shop for others
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If you love shopping then use your passion to benefit others. If you spend a lot of time in the shops you will know where the best ones are, what they stock and where to get a bargain.
For someone who can’t get out the house or finds shopping hard, your knowledge and experience will be a real benefit. Not only will you be getting them what they need, but at the best possible price.
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Those who enjoy a flutter could help children with mathematical skills. Gambling is all about the law of probability and that is taught in schools.
Often the reason children struggle with maths is because they find the subject boring, but if you make it more exciting then you get their attention.
It is about your skills. If you can work out the odds of a horse race, then you have good numerical ability. Why not use it to help others?
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TV addicts could use tips they learn from makeover shows to renovate a community centre. The TV is often considered something people use to switch off after a busy day, but we learn a lot from programmes.
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Pick up skills from the box
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We absorb information and get ideas all the time. What we see can also be inspiring. If we see people achieve something on the TV, it might spur us on to do the same. Using the knowledge we acquire to help others also help us turn what is a sedentary pastime into an activity.
Getting involved in activities is also a way to meet new people and perhaps even meet Mr or Miss Right. And in addition to finding love, the community gets a facelift.
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Read source of it on the page
Publicist Max Clifford has created a 10-point guide to becoming famous.
He has advised would-be stars to appear on reality TV shows, date or Royal Family members, or steal the limelight from a high-profile relative.
People could also fail abysmally on TV talent contests or make the most of being , the PR guru advised in a show for digital channel Fame TV.
Being in the right place at the right time was also a good option, Mr Clifford said.
“There’s no set route or set of rules to achieving fame. Nowadays it’s possible for people to become famous literally overnight,” he advised.
“Talent doesn’t even really come into being famous any more - it helps, obviously, but most of it is just about being seen and with the right people, and then really knowing how to capitalise on it.”
‘No limits’
Examples have been given of people who have gained fame as a result of the methods which Mr Clifford has highlighted.
Appearing on a reality TV show worked for Chantelle Houghton, who, ironically, became a star after appearing as the token unknown on this year’s Celebrity Big Brother.
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Doing well on TV talent contests put Will Young, Lemar and Shayne Ward in the public eye - whereas performing poorly in these programmes helped the Cheeky Girls and Darius Danesh.
Paris Hilton, Peaches Geldof and Bianca Gascoigne are among those said to have gained exposure by coming from a famous family.
Coleen McLoughlin and Kevin Federline are cited as people who have become famous by dating a celebrity.
And when it came to being pictured in the right place at the right time, the examples included Liz Hurley and Kelly Brook.
Mr Clifford, 63, said there were ” no limits” about what people would do nowadays “if they think it will achieve their dreams of fame”.
Source article
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The UK’s singletons could soon be using a telephone service to log where, when and who they go on dates with. The system, known as datesense, could help to prevent women or being attacked on blind dates. Daters log their details and check-in afterwards. If they cannot be traced in 72 hours the police are notified. Dating agency Viva-City.com developed the system after a survey suggested a third of women do not tell anyone where they are going on a first date. More than 1,000 people were questioned in the survey and over half said they would consider going on a blind date.
But one-in-three women and 50% of men said they would not tell even their closest friends where they were going. Most women said this is because they want to be independent, but many said they would feel . Viva-City consulted the Metropolitan Police and personal safety charity the Suzy Lamplugh Trust while establishing the service.
New risks William McMullan, founder of Viva-City, said: “The safety of our registered users on a first date is something we take very seriously. “We have developed datesense with the assistance of the Metropolitan Police and in addition we feature safety tips and advice on the site.” The Suzy Lamplugh Trust believes the rising of internet dating and a willingness to meet with strangers brings new risks. Lizzie Lyell, spokeswoman for the trust, warned that personal safety has to be a priority.
She said: “A lot of personal safety precautions are common sense, but sadly common sense is not always common practice, and too many people go through life “If you are going on a date with someone, especially if you have never met Datesense will be available to Viva-City members from Monday. |
“It’s been opportunity for us to fulfil some of our aspirations as Muslims and learn some new things that are going on with our religion,” said Abdul Fatai Adisa, a delegate from , Indiana.
“It opens doors for communities who would otherwise not consider having women in leadership positions and I think it sends an important message to those more elements within the American Muslim community.
“It’s a signal to the establishment.”
On the first day of the convention, Ms Mattson held a news conference in which she criticised President George W Bush’s use of the term “Islamic fascism” when describing the enemy in the “war on terror”. “This is a term that had very bad resonance in the Muslim majority world and makes us feel uncomfortable,” she said. “We’re hoping there can be some adjustment to this language.”
“Media Islam is the result of a one-sided understanding of Islam that is represented to us in a solitary, cliched and vicious way,” said former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami in a keynote speech.
Dr Hassaballa also said that as the five-year anniversary of the 11 September attacks approached, Muslims in the US had to grapple more than ever with campaigns of misinformation against them. But Firas Ahmad, senior editor with the Islamic magazine, Islamica, said the Muslim community also needed do better at selling itself to the US public.
“We have stories to tell that can connect with mainstream Americans. If they knew them, we’d become a little more human instead of the dehumanising effect of terrorism.
“We need to tell our story in a way that is compelling and only when we do that will these perceptions of the Muslim communities be diminished and a more accurate portrayal be available.”
Ann Siddique from Albany, New York, had a more optimistic take on things. The 25-year-old converted to Islam a few years ago after becoming interested in the religion.
“The main things I get from non-Muslim people are questions,” she said.
“Just sheer curiosity, and so it’s fortunate that a lot of people want to learn and are willing to ask questions - and seek the truth.”
It was billed as the biggest gathering of Muslims in North America, and tens of thousands of delegates turned up to the three-day event, which was held over the weekend near Chicago.
Many of the sessions touched on issues related to women in Islam and in American society. On the eve of the convention, Ingrid Mattson, a Canadian convert to Islam, was elected as Isna’s new president, making her the first woman to hold the role.
“The election has huge symbolic importance,” said Edina Lekovic, a delegate based in Los Angeles with the Muslim Public Affairs Council.
Focus on the media
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We don’t value the idea of communicating properly
Islamica magazine
It was not just the who came under scrutiny.
The criticism of the way in which Muslims are portrayed in the American media was also an important theme at the convention.
And some delegates agreed.
“I think the media portrayal of the crises around the world, many of which are dominated by Muslims, usually tends to accentuate the negative,” said Dr Hesham Hassaballa, a Chicago-based columnist and author.
“If it bleeds, it leads. And so, a Muslim woman holding a candle praying for peace is not as newsworthy as a Muslim driving a truck bomb into a building.”
‘Sheer curiosity’
“There are websites and pundits and commentators which disseminate misinformation about Islam, and they’re becoming very and very savvy and they give an air of credibility that they don’t deserve,” he said.
“We don’t value the idea of communicating properly,” he said.
But not everyone was downbeat.
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| Original article ‘’ If there’s one thing that Mary Balfour knows about, it’s finding Mr or Ms Right. The love guru runs two dating agencies, two internet dating websites and has penned a self-help guide for singles seeking that special someone. Her top tip to getting a date is to sell yourself, rather than sit back and hope that the perfect person will stumble onto you. The first step is write an eye-catching personal ad. Whether it be an online , agency profile or personal ad, the rules are the same - avoid clichs, be positive and creative. Ms Balfour says personal ads can be a minefield for the , so learn to decode the euphemisms used by fellow singles. “Fun-loving” typically means up for frolics between the sheets; while “young-looking” means well over your preferred age range, and “young at heart” is likely to indicate someone eligible for a pension. She recommends that women never put their age in ads. “Men can be very ageist, particularly against women in the 37 to 45 group. Much better to put the age of men you’re looking for, and they’ll assume you’re right for them. They’re much more prejudiced on paper than in the flesh.” Survival of the fittest With one in five Britons now using dating aids to meet people, according to a report by Telecom Express, first count more than ever. Ms Balfour says there’s no bigger turn-off than being negative.
“Don’t say ‘I don’t want to meet someone who’s tight with money.’ Far better to say ‘I’d like to meet someone generous.’ And don’t write a CV, try to inject some feelings into it. Remember, [your ad] could be your first exposure to your future partner.” And people like to see what they’re getting - ads with photos tend to get more page views than those which rely on words alone to paint a picture. Think you look more like a frog than a prince or princess? Not to worry, profiles which are most appealing are those in which the subject is smiling. And for women, Ms Balfour recommends wearing more make-up than usual for their close-up to avoid a “bleached out look”. Try me - and me So what to do once this appealing “shop window” has sparked interest and a real-life date - or dates - is on the cards?
Ms Balfour says keep the date short and sweet - stick to light-hearted topics, particularly steering clear of past relationships. And remember, profiles can be misleading so don’t be too if Mr Tall, Dark and Handsome turns out to be none of the above. Just chalk it up to experience. Ms Balfour calls it domino dating. “To increase your dating success rate, you must inevitably increase your failure rate,” she says. In other words, you have to kiss a lot of frogs to find your prince. Smart Dating by Mary Balfour is published by Harper Collins.
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Bookshops may not have to open at midnight - Harry Potter style - to cope with demand when Speeches 1997-2006 is published in September.
But publishers Bloomsbury hope the involvement of their biggest selling author JK Rowling will boost sales.
The boy wizard’s creator is writing a foreword for one of the sections.
The Ms Rowling is known to be a friend of the Browns and has been a guest at 11 Downing Street.
Other well-known names signed up to write introductions for the 30, 500 page book include Nelson Mandela, former US Vice-President Al Gore, former head of the US Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan and Chief Rabbi Jonathon Sacks.
intellect’
Mr Mandela writes: “I am pleased that Gordon Brown’s speeches have been collected for publication. Reading them gives an insight into the man behind the politician, and the values behind the policies.”
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FINANCIAL WIZARDRY?
Prudence - Long-running love interest, now little seen
Stability - Mantra-like incantation best chanted at Budget time
Boom and Bust - Evil twins to which there must be no return
Golden rule - Ancient law none may tamper with (unless they wrote it)
Neo classical endogenous growth theory - Most mysterious spell of all…
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The will head-up sections on Britishness and fairness, the economy and public services, child poverty and the environment. A Bloomsbury spokesman would not confirm which section Ms Rowling would introduce.
In its blurb, the publisher hails Mr Brown’s “formidable and intellect trained in the analytical skills of the historian but also - and far more importantly inspired by a vision of what the political process can achieve for our society and for our nation”.
Among the greatest hits collected in the book, are speeches on subjects ranging from poverty in Africa to patriotism, in which Mr Brown calls for a British equivalent of a “flag in every” garden seen in America.
‘General readership’
But the mid 1990s speech in which the chancellor used the phrase “neo classical endogenous growth theory” - mocked by Michael Heseltine as being “not Brown’s but Balls’” (a reference to Mr Brown’s right hand man Ed Balls) - is not included.
A second book, Moving Britain Forward: Selected Speeches 1997-2006, will contain 10 of Mr Brown’s speeches, aiming to “distil the essence of his political vision for Britain in an age of globalization”.
The 256-page paperback is aimed at a more “general readership”, Bloomsbury said, adding that it will “interest anyone who wants to discover what motivates Gordon Brown, and what his vision is for a modern, forward-looking Britain”.
The books are to be published on the first day of the Labour Party Conference in September - a date tipped by some commentators as the moment Tony Blair could announce he is standing down as Prime Minister. Mr Blair released a similar collection - New Britain: My Vision of a Young Country - in 1996, a year before becoming Prime Minister.
Both books will be edited by Wilf Stevenson, director of the Smith Institute, and all royalties are being donated to the Jennifer Brown Research Laboratory within the University of Edinburgh’s Research Institute for Medical Cell Biology.
Ask the same question today and the answer may very well be “why wouldn’t he”.
Indeed, according to the Mirror’s reports of a leaked memo from New Labour’s chief strategist, Lord Gould, it is something Mr Brown is considering.
The memo, written before Mr Brown became prime minister, reveals much of the style and approach Mr Brown has brought to the job was mapped out long beforehand and he appears to have pretty much stuck to the plan.
The key section, which has added to early-election fever, states: “We have to have a strategy of audacious advance. The best way of achieving this is to hold an early election after a short period of intense and compelling activity. A kind of ’shock and awe strategy’ blasting through the opposition and blasting us to the mid-40 per-cents.”
It comes form the same man who wrote the memo saying Tony Blair should leave Downing Street with the crowds begging for more and it seems to accurately predict precisely what is now happening.
The Tories are distracting with a bout of internal sniping and blood-letting as David Cameron’s opinion poll ratings slide.
Autumn poll risks
Meanwhile the “new” prime minister is enjoying a predicted bounce in the polls and is offering what appears to be a popular, more serious and less glitzy approach to leadership and just that period of “intense and
compelling activity”.
If Britain went to the polls today, a fourth Labour victory with around double the current majority is what the current opinion surveys suggest as the likely outcome.
So, after a good summer holiday during which, knowing Mr Brown, he will never stop calculating and planning, could he return in September and, shortly afterwards, spring a general election?
It may look enticing, but there are some real risks in going for an autumn poll.
There are historical examples of prime ministers either going early or waiting, and suffering as a result - Labour’s Clem Atlee in 1951 (early)
and Jim Callaghan in 1979 (late) and the Tories’ Ted Heath in 1974 (early).
But they probably don’t offer any real insights - other than how
unpredictable this game is - as conditions are always entirely different.
Begging bowls
So Mr Brown will be calculating from scratch. And one of the first
obstacles is the relatively mundane yet vital issue of cash.
Labour is currently some 26 million in the red and, thanks to the
affair, donors have been reluctant to cough up.
That black cloud may be passing, and party officials are already out and
about with their begging bowls.
One way or another, should Gordon go for it, the money would be there.
And if the campaign was genuinely limited to three weeks, with fewer
hugely expensive stunts and more soap box campaigning, that may be a
welcome change from a party committed to getting back in touch with the
voters.
Similarly, there are problems getting the local and national party
machines, currently stripped back to the bone, in fighting shape.
That too is not an insurmountable problem but could give Mr Brown’s
party advisers reason to urge a delay until next spring - still seen as
the most likely time for an early election. The autumn would all be a
bit of a
scramble.
David Cameron had his own ‘bounce’ when he became Tory leader
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But then, putting the case for the autumn, there is the simple fact that
the bounce may just stop.
This sort of political honeymoon is pretty fragile and can be based
almost entirely on simply having a new face on the TV every night -
David Cameron experienced an almost identical bounce after his election
in 2005.
Mr Brown could take advantage of the bounce while being able to claim it
was only right and proper that the British people should have their say
on their new prime minister.
And, let’s face it, even if he “bounced” to victory that would not
lessen the five-year mandate he would have.
Either way, what Mr Brown almost certainly will not want to do is wait
until the last moment, by which time all room for manoeuvre is closed off.
Four year tradition
The actual deadline for the next election is summer 2010, although
recent tradition from both parties suggest the “normal” time for an
election would be May 2009.
But even that may be leaving it a bit late for Mr Brown, who might well
expect to have lost a bit of bounce by then.
If he is a worrier, Mr Brown might fear not just the Tories but that
“events” may have overwhelmed the .
It would also mean that unlike most PMs he would have spent the first
two years in office preparing for an election rather than transforming
the country in his desired direction.
So spring next year looks on the face of it to be the best option - but
clearly there are arguments for and against all the different dates and
the PM knows the virtues of keeping your opponents guessing.
Originaly from: page
Newspapers across the globe condemn North Korea’s missile test launches, with one Japanese commentator speaking of a “moment of truth” for the US.
Other Asian dailies look to China to “shoulder a leading role” in bringing the Kim Jong-il regime back to the negotiating table.
, one Russian military paper argues that the failed tests show the poor quality of North Korea’s missile , whilst an Iranian daily says the US will use the launches to justify its presence in Asia.
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BBC Monitoring selects and translates news from radio, television, press, news agencies and the internet from 150 countries in more than 70 languages. It is based in Caversham, UK, and has several bureaux abroad.
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